The Truth About Mortgage Rates (and Why the Fed Isn’t the Whole Story)

Here’s the thing about mortgage rates…
Everyone expects them to drop right after the Fed cuts. 📉
But they don’t always play along.

Last September, the average 30-year fixed rate was around 7.2%.
Today, it’s closer to 6.39% — and loans like FHA, VA, and USDA have followed a similar path.

So what gives?

Mortgage Rates Aren’t Set by the Fed
While the Federal Reserve’s actions definitely influence the market, they don’t directly set mortgage rates. Instead, mortgage rates are tied to the bond market, inflation, and investor expectations about where the economy is headed.

That’s why rates can start moving before the Fed makes a change — or sometimes even in the opposite direction. Investors are constantly reacting to new data, forecasts, and sentiment, not just the Fed’s latest announcement.

What This Means for Homebuyers and Homeowners
If you’re waiting for that “perfect moment” when rates finally drop after a Fed cut… you might end up waiting longer than you need to.

The lesson?
👉 Don’t just watch the Fed — check where you stand today.

Whether it’s running numbers on a potential home purchase or exploring a refinance, your personal timing might already be better than you think.